"Wolf is coming" effect of production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region: SHFE tin prices remain low and range-bound, but spot cargo transactions fall short of market expectations [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on May 29, 2025

In the morning session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) maintained a low-level sideways trend, opening at 257,600 yuan/mt, slightly lower than yesterday's closing price of 257,000 yuan/mt. By midday, the price had rebounded slightly but still closed at 257,590 yuan/mt, down 1.59%. Trading volume surged to 89,600 lots, and open interest increased to 28,500 lots. This market movement was mainly influenced by rumors of production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region, coupled with market panic over expectations that the US Fed would maintain high interest rates.

​​The "Cry Wolf" Effect of Production Resumptions in Myanmar's Wa Region​​: Despite market rumors that mining operations have resumed in the Wa region, actual tin ore transportation has not yet commenced. Currently, few enterprises are paying fees to obtain mining licenses, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most major ore traders have not paid management fees. Moreover, the current inspection process at the China-Myanmar border is stringent, and the entry procedures for most large machinery and related mining personnel are cumbersome. The current progress of production resumptions in the Wa region has fallen short of market expectations, delaying full production resumptions until the second half of the year. The short-term supply tightness remains unchanged.

​​Marginal Easing of Trade Policies​​: The US court ruled that Trump's tariff policies exceeded its authority, and the EU extended tariff exemptions for Chinese PV modules, temporarily alleviating pressure on the export chain. However, in the long term, the costs of "deglobalization" will still push up the price center of the tin industry chain.

Spot Market: Trading in the morning spot market was relatively active, with most traders closing around one truckload of deals. However, the overall performance fell short of market expectations. Some downstream enterprises still refrained from significant restocking, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.